James Bond is caught up in a mysterious scenario where the evil villain has him blindfolded. He somehow breaks through the handcuffs but is unable to get the blindfold off. Upon searching, he comes across a bow and 3 arrows. He can hear the villain speak, and thus tries to take a shot at him. He launches the first arrow, it misses the villain. He then launches the second arrow and it misses by a greater margin.
What is the probability that this third shot our james bond takes will be worse than the second shot?
2/3. How? Well, since he has 3 arrows, each shot has 1/3rd chance of being the best shot. So the chance that the third shot is not the best shot is 1 minus 1/3rd, thus 2/3rd.
